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COVID-19 infected cases in Canada: Short-term forecasting models
Resource type
Authors/contributors
- Bata, Mo’tamad H. (Author)
- Carriveau, Rupp (Author)
- Ting, David S.-K. (Author)
- Davison, Matt (Author)
- Smit, Anneke R. (Author)
Title
COVID-19 infected cases in Canada: Short-term forecasting models
Abstract
Governments have implemented different interventions and response models to combat the spread of COVID-19. The necessary intensity and frequency of control measures require us to project the number of infected cases. Three short-term forecasting models were proposed to predict the total number of infected cases in Canada for a number of days ahead. The proposed models were evaluated on how their performance degrades with increased forecast horizon, and improves with increased historical data by which to estimate them. For the data analyzed, our results show that 7 to 10 weeks of historical data points are enough to produce good fits for a two-weeks predictive model of infected case numbers with a NRMSE of 1% to 2%. The preferred model is an important quick-deployment tool to support data-informed short-term pandemic related decision-making at all levels of governance.
Publication
PLOS ONE
Volume
17
Issue
9
Pages
e0270182
Date
Sep. 22, 2022
Journal Abbr
PLOS ONE
Language
en
ISSN
1932-6203
Short Title
COVID-19 infected cases in Canada
Accessed
8/9/24, 2:11 PM
Library Catalog
PLoS Journals
Extra
Publisher: Public Library of Science
Citation
Bata, M. H., Carriveau, R., Ting, D. S.-K., Davison, M., & Smit, A. R. (2022). COVID-19 infected cases in Canada: Short-term forecasting models. PLOS ONE, 17(9), e0270182. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0270182
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